While Labour enjoys a five-point lead over the Conservatives, it has slipped three points from 42% to 39% while the Tories have climbed from 32% to 34%. The Liberal Democrats, on the eve of their party conference, have edged up from 14% to 15% but remain well down on their 23% share of the vote in the May 2005 general election.

One threat for Brown is over the crisis in the financial markets, which led to the Bank of England’s rescue of Northern Rock last week. YouGov asked about the outlook for people’s finances over the next 12 months.

Only just over a quarter, 26%, said their finances would remain healthy, compared with 50% who said they would be under some pressure and 21% who predicted that they would be under a lot of pressure.

Even before the crisis, families were being squeezed by the five interest rate rises since August last year, higher energy costs and increases in food prices. Earnings have risen at a slower rate than prices.

According to the poll, 46% of people say they will spend less on non essential items over the next 12 months, against 12% who expect to spend more. Further increases in mortgage rates could add to the pressure, the poll suggests, with 16% expecting to face serious problems.

Another potential problem for Brown is over the new European Union reform treaty, which the government is expected to accept in the coming months. He has rejected a referendum on the treaty claiming it differs from the original EU constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters.

But, with some Labour MPs, the trade unions and the Tories backing calls for a referendum, the prime minister appears to be setting his face against public opinion. By 60% to 16%, voters think there should be a referendum on the treaty. Worryingly for Brown, this is also the strong view among Labour supporters, who back a vote by 47% to 28%.

Because Labour promised a referendum on the original constitution, voters believe, by 61% to 12%, that Labour would be breaking its pledge if it refuses to hold one on the treaty. As for how people would vote in such a referendum, more than a third don’t know, but of those who declared a view, 41% would reject it, with 17% in favour.

The poll also examined attitudes to the National Health Service, following Sir Derek Wanless’s report last week, which said that the NHS had not improved enough in return for the 50% real increase in spending poured in since 2002.

Only 6% think the NHS has got “much” better in recent years, while 21% say it is slightly better. In contrast, 22% say it is slightly worse and 19% much worse. By 68% to 18% they say taxpayers have not got good value for the extra money.

From:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2461294.ece