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Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Bird flu- health officials finally propose big rise in antiviral drugs for pandemic

Health officials are proposing up to a sixfold increase in the UK's stockpile of antiviral drugs as they reinforce preparations against a possible flu pandemic in the coming months. Based on computer simulations of the likely spread of the virus, experts believe it may be worth increasing stocks of the drug Tamiflu, made by Roche, the Swiss based pharmaceutical group, from the current 14.5m courses to 60m 90m, or up to one and a half packets for every UK resident.

The purchases would form a central part of a package of extra pandemic health preparation measures to be debated in the next comprehensive spending review this summer, which could cost more than £2bn.

The case for greater investment comes as the UK suffers its first significant outbreak in poultry of the H5N1 flu strain, which experts fear could form the basis for a mutation into a lethal human form.

Tamiflu, which the World Health Organisation has cited as a first line treatment for pandemic flu in spite of a still limited evidence base, is seen as pivotal to preparations, particularly since with current technology there are no effective vaccines that would be ready fast to protect against a pandemic flu strain.

Roche sells Tamiflu to governments for stockpiles at €15 (£9.90) per packet, so the additional purchases could be worth €700m-€1.1bn.

The larger stockpile would allow greater efforts to use the drug as a prophylactic, based on computer modelling conducted by Prof Neil Ferguson at Imperial College, London. This shows that there may be the possibility of diminishing the impact of a pandemic if those at risk of infection are treated before symptoms appear.

Currently, just 0.1 per cent of the 14.5m-strong stockpile is earmarked for such post-exposure prophylaxis.

Separately, purchases of more than £1bn have been proposed for face masks to limit the spread of infection, and antibiotics to treat the secondary infections likely to arise.

A year ago the government also paid £33m for sufficient "pre-pandemic" vaccine to protect 1.3m frontline health workers and key staff.

From
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c6d178da-b586-11db-a5a5-0000779e2340.html

Health Direct has long warned that the govt's efforts so far to protect the UK populace have been pathetic. On Nov 02, 2005 in The Chief Medical Officer labels N5H1 bird flu as 'Public Enemy No1' when the Chief Medical Officer- Sir Liam Donaldson, called on NHS managers to 'react as well' to a flu pandemic as they did to the London bombings.

'The NHS has got to take the pandemic seriously,' he said. 'We regard pandemic flu as public health enemy number one and we are on the march against it. The NHS needs to react as well to this pandemic as it did to the July bombings.'

He added: 'I hope the urgency of the pandemic will make even the most uninterested managers make the move to develop a plan. With good planning and preparation we can reduce the impact of pandemic flu on the health of our population.'

Primary care trusts are being warned that they should expect to see at least 1,000 new flu patients a week during any pandemic and this figure could rise to over 5,000 at the virus's peak.

Hospital admissions for acute respiratory and related conditions could increase by at least 50 per cent, with around 20,000 new patients a week at the height of the pandemic.

PCTs have been asked to draw up plans detailing how they would respond to a pandemic, which would be checked by the Department of Health to insure they were appropriate.

Sir Liam warned that the vaccine might not be available in time for the pandemic reaching the UK, but said the government was stockpiling 15 million anti-viral treatment courses to treat flu victims in the event of an outbreak.

Health Direct questioned what extra money was being allocated by the Labour govt to combat the flu epidemic when it does break- or is this yet another case of spin before truth?

The above was at least a better action that Labour's "efforts" on Aug 19, 2005 when in Bird flu- Labour gives Doctors leaflets not vaccines it was announced that every doctor's surgery in Britain will be sent official instructions on how to handle an outbreak of bird flu as ministers step up their preparations for a global pandemic that, if the worst fears are borne out, could kill up to 50m people.

The UK's 10,465 surgeries will receive a package of information from the government to help tackle a flu pandemic, which scientists warn is now inevitable. Ministers and officials have privately expressed the view that a bird flu pandemic poses a greater threat than terrorism.

Each surgery will also be given 50 copies of a leaflet for patients. How very useful.

The Department of Health says up to 50m people could die worldwide, of whom between 50,000 and 650,000 would be in the UK.

Ministers are anxious to be able to demonstrate, if the virus strikes, that they have done everything possible to limit its impact.

Labour has been accused of failing to stockpile enough vaccines to combat the virus but officials say they cannot develop a jab until they know the exact strain.

Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical group, is close to agreeing a donation of up to 3m doses of its antiviral drug, Tamiflu, to the World Health Organisation in an effort to limit the effects of a bird flu pandemic.

For a government obsessed with lies and spin over reality and improvement, this crass exercise is pathetic.

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