Bliar effect is hurting Labour - new ICM poll confirms
Declining public trust in Tony Bliar is dragging down wider public support for Labour, according to a Guardian/ICM poll published this week. It shows that the Conservatives have secured a lead in policy areas that once helped Mr Blair win three commanding general election victories.
The poll underlines the scale of the job facing Gordon Brown if he is to renew support to win a fourth general election. On nine key issues that shape the way people vote, Labour now has a lead in only three. The political map of Britain has been reshaped since 2005, with the Tories now ahead as the party with the best policies in such former Labour stronghold areas as education, tax and public services. Labour leads only on the fight against terrorism, the economy and health.
Labour has a one-point lead as the party with the best policy on the NHS - in contrast to a Guardian/ICM poll in May last year that put the Conservatives narrowly ahead. It can also draw confidence from a narrowing of the gap on some other issues, such as law and order, despite a series of difficulties at the Home Office. But Labour's lead on the economy is slipping - five points ahead of the Conservatives compared with 20 points at the last general election.
The poll also suggests that the issues on which Labour is most trusted are declining in importance. The economy, the second most important issue in 2005, is now sixth, behind the environment - an issue on which the Conservatives lead.
Meanwhile, the public's personal backing for Tony Bliar is also falling, suggesting that the worsening situation in Iraq and the impact of the police investigation into the possible sale of honours is having an effect Almost two-thirds of those questioned, 62%, say their opinion of him has become worse over the last year, including 45% of Labour supporters.
Gordon Brown has also suffered, although not to the same extent. More people, 30%, say their view of him has become worse over the past year, compared with 17% who think their view of him has improved. Almost half, 49%, say their opinion of him has not changed - and Mr Brown's reputation among Labour supporters has grown overall.
By contrast, David Cameron has gone up overall in public estimation, with 25% of those questioned saying their opinion of him has improved in the last year against 14% who say it has gone down.
Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, can draw confidence from the poll, which shows support for his party recovering and finds that the public view of him has remained largely unchanged, despite a difficult first year as leader.
Overall, the Conservative party has a six-point lead among people who say they are likely to vote at the next general election, a slight narrowing of the gap over the last month. The Tories are on 37%, down three points on last month's Guardian/ICM poll, with Labour on 31%, down one. The Liberal Democrats will be relieved by their rise to 23%, an increase of five points from last month's unusually low score.
Support for the Liberal Democrats has grown in this month's poll because the party has picked up the backing of some former Labour voters and because Lib Dem backers are now more likely to say they will turn out to vote.
The poll also shows that there is overwhelming enthusiasm for a general election once a new Labour leader is in place, with 76% of voters saying they would like Mr Brown to call a contest within a year if he enters office this summer, including 76% of Labour supporters. Only 19% think Mr Brown would be right to delay an election, which must take place by 2010.
The reality is that he will only call an early election if he is likely to win it. Asked how they might vote in a contest with Mr Brown as leader, against David Cameron and Sir Menzies, Labour would remain steady on 31% while the Tories would gain two points to 39%, a margin that would put them on the brink of a majority in the Commons.
The reality is that many voters will not make up their minds until Mr Bliar has left office. The fact that the question - unlike the regular survey of party support - names party leaders also makes direct comparison with the regular survey of voting intentions potentially misleading.
But the fact that such questions routinely show that the Conservatives would extend their lead if fighting Mr Brown do suggest that a change of leader will not in itself solve Labour's problems.
www.icmresearch.co.uk
http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,,1996532,00.html
The decline in trust in labour's ability to run the NHS competently has been plummeting for months. On Oct 25, 06 Health Direct noted that Labour's support at lowest level since Thatcher's last election victory in 1991: when support for Labour dropped to its lowest level in almost 20 years with the Conservatives opening up a potentially election-winning 10-point lead, according to a Guardian/ICM poll published today. Labour has the backing of only 29% of voters, equal to its lowest-ever level of support in a Guardian/ICM poll - recorded in May 1987, a month before Margaret Thatcher won a third term.
The results suggest that campaigning on the NHS offers the Tories potential gains, with an overwhelming majority of voters believing that the record sums being spent on health by the government have largely being wasted.
Only 14% of voters think the money invested since 1997 has been well spent, against 72% who agree that "a lot" has been used badly. Even 58% of Labour voters think the extra money has been misspent.
As a result only 25% of voters think that the NHS has improved since Labour came to power in 1997, against 30% who think it has got worse and 39% who think Labour has made little difference.
The poll underlines the scale of the job facing Gordon Brown if he is to renew support to win a fourth general election. On nine key issues that shape the way people vote, Labour now has a lead in only three. The political map of Britain has been reshaped since 2005, with the Tories now ahead as the party with the best policies in such former Labour stronghold areas as education, tax and public services. Labour leads only on the fight against terrorism, the economy and health.
Labour has a one-point lead as the party with the best policy on the NHS - in contrast to a Guardian/ICM poll in May last year that put the Conservatives narrowly ahead. It can also draw confidence from a narrowing of the gap on some other issues, such as law and order, despite a series of difficulties at the Home Office. But Labour's lead on the economy is slipping - five points ahead of the Conservatives compared with 20 points at the last general election.
The poll also suggests that the issues on which Labour is most trusted are declining in importance. The economy, the second most important issue in 2005, is now sixth, behind the environment - an issue on which the Conservatives lead.
Meanwhile, the public's personal backing for Tony Bliar is also falling, suggesting that the worsening situation in Iraq and the impact of the police investigation into the possible sale of honours is having an effect Almost two-thirds of those questioned, 62%, say their opinion of him has become worse over the last year, including 45% of Labour supporters.
Gordon Brown has also suffered, although not to the same extent. More people, 30%, say their view of him has become worse over the past year, compared with 17% who think their view of him has improved. Almost half, 49%, say their opinion of him has not changed - and Mr Brown's reputation among Labour supporters has grown overall.
By contrast, David Cameron has gone up overall in public estimation, with 25% of those questioned saying their opinion of him has improved in the last year against 14% who say it has gone down.
Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, can draw confidence from the poll, which shows support for his party recovering and finds that the public view of him has remained largely unchanged, despite a difficult first year as leader.
Overall, the Conservative party has a six-point lead among people who say they are likely to vote at the next general election, a slight narrowing of the gap over the last month. The Tories are on 37%, down three points on last month's Guardian/ICM poll, with Labour on 31%, down one. The Liberal Democrats will be relieved by their rise to 23%, an increase of five points from last month's unusually low score.
Support for the Liberal Democrats has grown in this month's poll because the party has picked up the backing of some former Labour voters and because Lib Dem backers are now more likely to say they will turn out to vote.
The poll also shows that there is overwhelming enthusiasm for a general election once a new Labour leader is in place, with 76% of voters saying they would like Mr Brown to call a contest within a year if he enters office this summer, including 76% of Labour supporters. Only 19% think Mr Brown would be right to delay an election, which must take place by 2010.
The reality is that he will only call an early election if he is likely to win it. Asked how they might vote in a contest with Mr Brown as leader, against David Cameron and Sir Menzies, Labour would remain steady on 31% while the Tories would gain two points to 39%, a margin that would put them on the brink of a majority in the Commons.
The reality is that many voters will not make up their minds until Mr Bliar has left office. The fact that the question - unlike the regular survey of party support - names party leaders also makes direct comparison with the regular survey of voting intentions potentially misleading.
But the fact that such questions routinely show that the Conservatives would extend their lead if fighting Mr Brown do suggest that a change of leader will not in itself solve Labour's problems.
www.icmresearch.co.uk
http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,,1996532,00.html
The decline in trust in labour's ability to run the NHS competently has been plummeting for months. On Oct 25, 06 Health Direct noted that Labour's support at lowest level since Thatcher's last election victory in 1991: when support for Labour dropped to its lowest level in almost 20 years with the Conservatives opening up a potentially election-winning 10-point lead, according to a Guardian/ICM poll published today. Labour has the backing of only 29% of voters, equal to its lowest-ever level of support in a Guardian/ICM poll - recorded in May 1987, a month before Margaret Thatcher won a third term.
The results suggest that campaigning on the NHS offers the Tories potential gains, with an overwhelming majority of voters believing that the record sums being spent on health by the government have largely being wasted.
Only 14% of voters think the money invested since 1997 has been well spent, against 72% who agree that "a lot" has been used badly. Even 58% of Labour voters think the extra money has been misspent.
As a result only 25% of voters think that the NHS has improved since Labour came to power in 1997, against 30% who think it has got worse and 39% who think Labour has made little difference.
Labels: Bliar, Tony Bliar
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