Flu pandemic is a high possibility the HPA has warned

The risk of an influenza pandemic is at its highest for a 'very, very long time', the Health Protection Agency has warned. The agency has been preparing for an outbreak of a new virus 'as though it will happen', chief executive Professor Pat Troop told HSJ.

She said: 'We're working on the basis that pandemic flu is a high possibility. It's not inevitable, but I would say that we're at the highest risk for a very, very long time.'

Officials are concerned by the possibility of avian flu transmitting to humans. 'Things seem to be gradually creeping along in South East Asia,' explained Professor Troop. 'When we see the evidence of it transmitting from human to human, in more than one or two cases, that's when the worry starts.'

Professor Troop explained that several factors make the risks now different to those faced in 1918, when Britain faced its last pandemic. 'Many countries where it might emerge don't have the best systems to pick it up. It can arrive here very fast - within hours or weeks, rather than
months when it has happened before. And the population density is so much higher that, should it happen, it will spread very fast,' she said.

Preparations include expanding surveillance systems to 'pick up when new bugs arrive', guidance for laboratories on diagnosing new cases, and developing vaccines.

Meanwhile, HPA chair Sir William Stewart warned of an increase in the number of antiviral-resistant viruses. Within six years of starting treatment, 27 per cent of HIV patients develop a resistance to one of the three drugs in the standard cocktail.

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