£200m vaccine will be just a stopgap against flu outbreak

More than 53,000 people could die, but antiviral jab will not prevent all the deaths the Government took out a £200 million insurance policy yesterday against an epidemic of flu that could kill more than 50,000 people.
Under political pressure and on the eve of a World Health Organisation meeting in Luxembourg to discuss flu preparedness, the Department of Health rushed out a plan based on buying 14.6 million courses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu.
The plan says that more than 53,000 people could die in a pandemic in Britain unless precautions are taken. The only sure defence is a vaccine, but that cannot be made until the precise make-up of any pandemic strain is known.
Tamiflu is a stop-gap measure but should reduce the severity of the disease and prevent some deaths, said Professor Maria Zambon, head of the National Influenza Centre at the Health Protection Agency.
Yesterday’s announcement came after warnings from WHO that a strain of bird flu with the ability to spread rapidly in people could develop, turning the few cases of human infection that have occurred in Asia into a global epidemic. John Reid, the Health Secretary, said: “We are working closely with other governments and WHO to ensure the international community is as well prepared as it can be to spot and address the early signs of a pandemic. However, it makes sense to ensure that we in the UK . . . have drugs against an influenza pandemic.”
Other countries had ordered stocks of Tamiflu and the Conservatives were pressing the Government to act. Andrew Lansley, the Tory health spokesman, said: “The Government’s response is late and incomplete. We needed a stockpile of antiviral drugs to be produced months ago and action to promote vaccine production. The Labour Government once again failed to act and to give public health the priority it requires.”
For several weeks the Department of Health has been fending off questions about flu preparedness by saying the plan would be published in the spring. Paul Burstow, the Liberal Democrat spokesman, accused the Government of being slow to tackle a threat that experts believe “is not simply a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’ ”.
The quantity of the drug ordered is based on the assumption that one in four people will catch the disease. The estimated 53,700 deaths assumes a one in 300 mortality rate among those infected, as in the 1957 Asian flu pandemic.
In Asia, the death toll from bird flu has been much higher, at 75 per cent of those infected. But an avian flu virus that has developed the ability to infect people easily is expected to lose some virulence in the process, becoming much less lethal than pure bird flu which infects only those in direct contact with birds.
There are, however, many uncertainties. The 1918-19 flu virus killed 1 per cent of those it infected, and if this were reproduced in a new pandemic the death toll in Britain would reach 141,800 in the absence of effective action.
In the extreme case considered, where half the population catches flu and the mortality rate is 2 per cent, more than 700,000 people would die. But the 50,000 figure is considered much more likely.
Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, said: “Wherever in the world a flu pandemic starts, perhaps with its epicentre in the Far East, we must assume we will be unable to prevent it reaching the UK. When it does, its impact will be severe in the number of illnesses and the disruption to everyday life.”
In a typical year, between 12,000 and 18,000 people die from “seasonal” flu, mainly among high-risk groups such as the elderly. Pandemic flu occurs when the virus changes sufficiently to attack people who have acquired immunity to the regular strains.
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